El Niño yatangiye guteza impagarara kandi aribwo igitangira

inkuru ducyesha BBC News ivuga ko kuva Ku wa 19 Nzeri 2026, ubushyuhe bwo ku buso bw’inyanja mu gice cyo hagati n’iburasirazuba bwa Pasifika bwari hejuru y’ikigereranyo gisanzweho dogere Celsius 3.05.

Iki gipimo cyarenze ku cyari cyaranditswe mu 2015, ubwo habaga El Niño ikomeye cyane, aho ubushyuhe bwari bwageze kuri dogere 3.02 Celsius hejuru y’ikigereranyo gisanzwe.

Professor Adam Scaife, ukuriye ishami rishinzwe iteganyagihe ry’igihe kirekire muri Met Office yo mu Bwongereza, yavuze ko abahanga bamaze igihe batanga umuburo ko iyi El Niño ishobora kuba idasanzwe.

Yagize ati: “Kuba yamaze kurenga ku bipimo byabanje, kandi hakaba hakiri ibyumweru byinshi mbere y’uko igera ku ndunduro yayo mu mpera z’uyu mwaka, bigaragaza ubukana budasanzwe bw’iyi El Niño.”

El Niño ni iki?

El Niño ni impinduka kamere y’ikirere ibaho hagati y’imyaka ibiri n’irindwi, kandi akenshi ikamara hafi umwaka.

Ibaho iyo imiyaga isanzwe ihuha iva iburasirazuba yerekeza iburengerazuba bwa Pasifika igabanutse cyangwa igahindura icyerekezo, bigatuma amazi ashyushye yo mu nyanja agenda yerekeza mu burasirazuba.

Ubu bushyuhe bwinshi bwo mu nyanja bushobora gusohoka bukajya mu kirere, bukagira uruhare mu kuzamura ubushyuhe ku isi no guhindura imiterere y’ikirere mu bice bitandukanye.

Ingaruka zatangiye kugaragara

El Niño ishobora gutuma mu bice bimwe by’isi habaho imvura nyinshi n’imyuzure, mu gihe ahandi ishobora guteza amapfa n’inkongi z’imiriro.

Muri Indonesia, inkongi z’imiriro zifitanye isano n’ibihe byumye byatewe n’ingaruka za El Niño zimaze kugira ingaruka ku bantu bagera kuri miliyoni 12.5, nk’uko Minisiteri y’Ubuzima y’icyo gihugu ibitangaza.

Mu Buhinde, El Niño ikunze kujyana no kugabanuka kw’imvura y’itumba izwi nka monsoon. Kugeza ku wa 22 Nzeri, imvura yari yagabanutseho 15% ugereranyije n’ikigereranyo gisanzwe, nk’uko imibare y’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe iteganyagihe ibigaragaza.

El Niño kandi ishobora kugira uruhare mu kugabanya ibikorwa by’ibihuhusi byo muri Atlantic kubera impinduka mu muyaga wo mu bice byo hejuru by’ikirere.

Kugeza ubu mu 2026, nta hurricane yari iraboneka muri Atlantic, bikaba byaratumye habaho igihe kirekire kurusha ibindi kuva hatangira gukurikiranwa ibi biza hifashishijwe satelite.

Amapfa n’imyuzure bishobora kwiyongera

Abahanga bavuga ko El Niño ishobora kongera ibyago by’imyuzure mu bice byo ku nkombe za Ecuador, Peru ndetse no mu majyepfo ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.

Ku rundi ruhande, Brazil, Australia na Indonesia bishobora gukomeza guhura n’amapfa n’inkongi z’imiriro.

Izi mpinduka z’ikirere zishobora kugira ingaruka ku buhinzi, umusaruro w’ibihingwa, umutekano w’ibiribwa ndetse n’ubukungu bw’ibihugu.

Abahanga ariko bavuga ko ubukana bwa El Niño budahita busobanura ko ingaruka zayo zizaba zingana ahantu hose, kuko buri El Niño igira imiterere yihariye.

Ubu abahanga bakomeje gukurikirana ubushyuhe bw’inyanja n’uko iyi mpinduka y’ikirere izagenda igira ingaruka ku mvura, amapfa, inkongi z’imiriro n’ibindi bihe bidasanzwe, mu gihe iteganyijwe kugera ku ndunduro yayo mu mpera za 2026.